The year 2022 was an economic rollercoaster, the effects of the world over phenomena like the Ukraine – Russia war, Brexit, crude oil price hike, and the pandemic was visibly felt in India too. We are now at the end of the year, and predictions are rolling in as to what to expect from 2023. Some experts see a doomed 2023 for India while others are looking at India as the fastest-growing nation of 2023 in the world. To draw a conclusion on what to expect from 2023, we need to take a closer look at the economy of India in 2022.
Being a leading third-world nation, India not only has economic ties with leading economies all over the world it also has a huge population that is employed in these economies through outsourcing projects. The soaring inflation coupled with the falling foreign exchange (forex) and depreciating value of the Indian rupee has impacted our country’s economic growth like no other. The majority of our country’s leading business groups are a part of the business network community that performs based on the economic worth of the west.
Let’s take a look at the key economic downfalls of 2022:
The GDP growth rate in India has faced an imbalance, as the first quarter witnessed only a 4.1% growth rate followed by a 6.4% in the second quarter of 2022. The quarter that follows is predicted to be promising, however in general the growth rates have faced ups and downs of their own.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made multiple variations to maintain the forex as the rates have faced a massive hit. With the US dollar rates reaching sky heights and the Indian rupee falling to its lowest, the consequences of these forex rate changes had pushed the RBI into surging the reserves to $6.56 billion this year.
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices rose in the international market leading to the USD – INR exchange changes. The rate faced its lowest in July, currently the average value of Rs. 80.74.
Both export and import have faced a downward fall this year. The export rates fell 25% down around October 2022. This is seen has as a huge decrease in the export sector and has directly impacted our GDP.
Unemployment which has been a constant struggle for India, especially the year 2022 was a very difficult year in terms of employment capacity. The unemployment rate rose by 1.4% this year.
These reasons coupled with the wrinkled effects of global crises, contributed to hampering our nation’s economic growth. However, the question that still sustains is how India still managed to retain stability by the end of 2022?
Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi recently shared a positive outlook on the coming year and had pointed out some of the significant growth points of 2022. While the downfalls and GDP changes were visible in the last year, he discussed the optimistic side of the country’s economy
The Indian GDP has performed better than most G20 nations as per reports. There has been the impact of the recession on Indian jobs, freelance workers and in general the virtual business community yet, the impact is expected to take a positive turn in the coming year.
Here is a rewind of our economy’s proud moments this year:
India has become one of the leading vaccine suppliers in the world in the past year with a sale of 220 crore vaccines worldwide. This has led to a 40% rise in the export rate and created self-sustained vaccine supply support during the pandemic years.
INS Vikrant Launch
India is amongst the niche nations that own their very own aircraft carrier. INS Vikrant’s launch was one of the greatest occasions in the history of India’s economy. Over Rs. 20,000 crores were spent on the making of India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier.
Chaired G20 Summit
India was the chair at the G20 summit this year, which in itself is a major economic move for any nation. G20 is a premier international forum that together holds over 85% of the world’s GDP and 75% of the world’s trade. The nation’s internal approach to economic benefits is set to flourish as a consequence of this summit. India aims to promote the value of sharing human resources and how the past years have been a learning experience for the world about valuing responsible growth.
Per Capita Growth Rate
Keeping aside the stringent and inconsistent change in numbers, the per capita growth rate has increased in India. The per capita growth rate increase came as a shock initially as the same was not consistent with the unemployment and GDP stats. However, this does help the experts draw a positive outlook amongst the negative approaches.
This ideally came as a shock to many and it was surely a positive surprise for most. The Indian stock market has been in a bull run even during the recession period. The market has increased by 3% this year, and the change in Singaporean and Indonesian policies played a key role in this change.
For example, companies like Amazon, Apple, and Google lead the business work models of the US and are already showing signs of recession by laying off thousands of employees all over the world. At the same time, the leading companies based in India in the start-up and tech industry have held strong ground. In fact experts have looked at 2023 as a year of positive growth for the IT industry.
Many Indians have also smartly switched to remote work and freelance projects to improvise their niche offering, creating a healthy barrier against recession impact. While the west has been going through a severe recession period, India is no longer the same as it was in 2010. The reactions of the country’s leaders and citizens have been rather commendable.
What lies ahead in 2023 can no more be based on predictions and expert opinions. One can surely be hopeful that if the Indian economy and world events work in proper order, India might be the fastest-growing economy in 2023. However, looking back at the past couple of years, the same cannot be a surety.
Ever since the pandemic, there have been wrinkle effects that resulted in economic damage and pushed back nations that had worked hard at growth and development. Similarly, the coming year can either be a game changer or a shock wave, the question remains unanswered.